Pac 10 Tournament at the Staples Center
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By Jon Wilner of Mercextra.com
Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 10:05 am in Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Pac 10, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington. I’ve written about this issue before on the Hotline, but given the time of year and the look of the Pac-10 standings, it’s worth repeating:

Teams that finish 9-9 in league play have not fared well on Selection Sunday.

And by “not fared well,” I mean they’re 0-14.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no Pac-10 team with a .500 record in conference play has received an at-large bid.

I know that only one or two of those 14 was even worth of being in the at-large discussion. (Thanks to ASU’s Doug Tammaro for updated details.)

And I know the league is much stronger this season than it has been in most seasons — and maybe in any season.

But that track record should still be cause for concern in Eugene, Berkeley, Tempe, Tucson and Los Angeles, where 9-9 is a distinct possibility.

Yes, even in Tucson. Arizona’s strength of schedule and number of quality wins should be enough to get the Cats in the tournament at 9-9.

Then again, a .500 record would mean a 4-6 finish for Arizona, and that’s not going to impress anyone on the Selection committee.

Last thought on the matter (this week): It’s important to remember how the selection process works.

A 9-9 Pac-10 team would not be competing against the conference’s at-large history, or against a predetermined number of at-large slots reserved for the league.

The Selection committee would compare 9-9 Oregon/Cal/ASU/Arizona/USC to other teams vying for at-large slots. If one or more of the Pac-10 candidates has a better “profile” — the committee’s term — then it would receive a bid.

So it’s not about that 0-14 figure, per se. It’s about the profile of 9-9 teams. And maybe that profile is better this year than in the past.

1. UCLA (22-3/10-2)
Last week: Won at USC 56-46
This week: vs. Oregon State and Oregon
Comment: The guess here is that UCLA ends up winning the league by two games, and maybe three.

2. Stanford (21-4/10-3)
Last week: Lost at ASU 72-68 (OT); won at Arizona 67-66
This week: vs. Cal
Comment: And the guess here is that Stanford loses twice more: at UCLA, for sure, and somewhere else (maybe at USC in a post-Pauley letdown).

3. Washington State (20-5/8-5)
Last week: Won at Oregon State 70-57 and Oregon 62-53
This week: vs. Arizona State and Arizona
Comment: Continuing the projections: Cougars will finish with five six league losses, and that’ll be good enough for third place.

4. Arizona State (16-8/6-6)
Last week: Beat Stanford 72-68 (OT); lost to Cal 76-73
This week: at Washington State and Washington
Comment: Given the remaining schedule, there’s no way the Devils do better than 9-9, and don’t discount 7-11.

5. USC (15-9/6-6)
Last week: Lost to UCLA 56-46
This week: vs. Oregon and Oregon State
Comment: Meanwhile, Trojans have a decent shot at fourth place, which would be quite an achievement given their youth and the Hackett injury.

6. Arizona (16-9/6-6)
Last week: Beat Cal 83-73; lost to Stanford 67-66
This week: at Washington and Washington State
Comment: But if I had to guess, Arizona will move into the 4-hole when all is said and done. Cats could easily win four of their last six (of course, they could also lose four of their last six if Bayless and Budinger don’t get any help).

7. Cal (15-9/6-7)
Last week: Lost at Arizona 83-73; won at ASU 76-73
This week: at Stanford
Comment: My (imaginary) money is on the Bears losing their roadies and sweeping the Washingtons in Haas — they have to start winning in Berkeley, don’t they — to finish 8-10 in league.

8. Oregon (15-10/6-7)
Last week: Beat Washington 71-58; lost to WSU 62-53
This week: at USC and UCLA
Comment: By taking two from Cal, Ducks have the advantage in the race for a bye into the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tourney.

9. Washington (14-12/5-8)
Last week: Lost at Oregon 71-58; won at Oregon State 97-59
This week: vs. Arizona and Arizona State
Comment: Says a lot that the No. 9 team can beat the No. 1 team … It says the Huskies have lost some games they shouldn’t have.

10. Oregon State (6-19/0-13)
Last week: Lost to WSU 70-57 and Washington 97-59
This week: at UCLA and USC
Comment: Last three are at home (Oregon and the Arizonas), so Beavs aren’t locked into 0-18 just yet.

Pac 10 Tournament News:
Pac-10 ratings: Good luck to the teams that finish 9-9
NCAA Basketball Pac-10 Future Odds
Trojans Upend No. 11 Cougars, 70-61,
UCLA loses to California in PAC-10 tournament
2007 Pac-10 Tournament Preview 03/06/07
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Tyler Hansbrough
Tyler Hansbrough led Oak Hill Academy to a 42-1 record as a senior (won their first 42 games) o First-team USA Today All-America selection o Averaged 23.8 points, 9.1 assists and five steals in 2006 o Shot 63 percent from the floor, including 42 percent from three-point range o Had a season-high 37 points, one of nine games in which he scored 30 or more o Had a season-high 18 assists and had double-digit assists 18 times o Played for coach Steve Smith o Participated in McDonald's All-Star Game, Jordan Classic and Nike Hoop Summit o McDonald's and Parade All-America selection o Had 17 points and six assists in Nike Hoop Summit o Also played soccer last year at Oak Hill o Most Valuable Player at Oak Hill in 2005 o Tyler Hansbroughwas voted Most Valuable Player at World Juniors Tournament in France in June 2005 o Attended Bishop McNamara High School in Forestville, Md., for two years.

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